Remarks by
H.E. Sungnam Lim
1st Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs
Changing Security Environment in Northeast Asia
Trilateral Commission
Singapore, March 24 2018

Let me begin by quoting a phrase from Mencius: if I may use Chinese words, 天時, which means heavenly timing, 地利, geographic merits, and 人和, people’s harmony. It means that history can be made when three elements come together: the right timing, the right place and the harmony of people. When viewed from this perspective, we are indeed witnessing the making of history in Northeast Asia.

With regard to the right timing, there is a thaw beginning on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea came out of isolation and took part in the PyeongChang Winter Olympics, let alone a series of inter-Korean dialogue. President Trump is taking his foreign policy in a bold direction based on his vision of “America First.” China, after holding its major political gatherings called the “Two Sessions”, is now fully focused on strengthening internal unity and expanding external influence. In a nutshell, there are new and unprecedented developments happening in the region today.

As for the right place, it is widely agreed that the 21st century is the “Era of Asia.” The Asia Pacific region, which constitutes over a half of the world’s population and accounts for about 40% of global output, is where historic changes are taking place and where the future lies. And Singapore, where Trilateral Commission’s Plenary Meeting is being held today, is one of the most important nexus of the Asia Pacific region.
Finally, regarding the harmony of people, all of today’s participants are what is called the “cream of the crop.” So, the right timing and the right place, and with the wisdom of all of you gathered here, I believe that this meeting will come up with creative solutions which will help us respond to various regional and global challenges effectively.

Today, I would like to share with you some of my thoughts on three different dimensions of the security environment in Northeast Asia. At the core of the regional security landscape, lies the North Korean nuclear issue. If we widen our perspective beyond the Korean Peninsula, there is the important issue of how to cope with a rising China and a changing America. And last but not least, all these elements raise the need for a regional security regime. Unlike Europe where multilateralism flourished for decades to ease tensions and promote cooperation, such a mechanism has been absent in Northeast Asia.

Let me first touch upon the Korean Peninsula. A sea change is taking place which began with the PyeongChang Winter Olympic Games in Korea. Through a series of inter-Korean talks including the exchange of envoys, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un took a meaningful step which will hopefully lead to the process of denuclearization. He expressed willingness to have candid dialogue with the US regarding denuclearization and vowed neither to conduct nuclear tests nor launch ballistic missiles while dialogue is under way. He also showed understanding of the need for the Korea-US joint military exercises. I believe that such statements by Kim Jong Un have created the environment for meaningful dialogue with the DPRK, and thus, will lead to Summit meetings between the two Koreas and between the US and the DPRK in April and May, respectively. I strongly hope and believe that these meetings will lay the foundation for peaceful resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue as well as creation of the permanent peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.

My government’s strategy for achieving this goal will be guided ,among others, by three basic principles. First and foremost, we will firmly adhere to the principle of denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula through peaceful means.

Secondly, inter-Korean dialogue and talks between North Korea and the United States should mutually reinforce each other to move forward the process of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Likewise, we will coordinate and cooperate closely with other friends and partners in the region such as China, Japan and Russia.

Thirdly, we will never buy the same horse twice. In other words, we will not repeat the mistakes of the past. Recent developments in the inter-Korean dialogue and the US-DPRK relations are certainly major breakthroughs. As emphasized by President Moon Jae-in, however, we will deal with the issue at hand cautiously and prudently as if “handling a glass bowl.”

The second dimension I would like to discuss is the emergence of China as a global power. Since the end of the Cold War, China has undergone dramatic change. According to the World Bank, China’s GDP has risen almost thirty fold since 1991. As we all know, China has now become one of the biggest players in the world economy.

Faced with this remarkable transformation, the world is wondering how best to deal with China. What are their eventual goals and ambitions? Are the Chinese willing to provide common goods to the global community befitting its growing stature? Does China intend to become a good neighbor, benign in wielding its power and mindful of others’ needs? Will China abide by the rule of law?
Beijing has not answered these questions in a clear-cut manner, yet. Deng Xiao Ping argued for “tāo guāng yǎng huì” which means “to hide one’s strength and to bide one’s time,” and then, Hu Jin Tao talked about “hé píng jué qǐ” which means “peaceful rise to power.” Now, President Xi has been stressing “fèn fā yǒu wéi” which means “striving for achievement.”

In a similar vein, Washington’s view on its relations with Beijing has swung like a pendulum from defining China as a “responsible stakeholder” under the Bush administration or “strategic partner” under the Clinton and the Obama administration to a “strategic competitor” under the Trump administration.

This lack of a clear strategic understanding regarding the relationship between Beijing and Washington has raised concerns about the possibility of China and the US falling into the Thucydides’ Trap, which neither China nor the US nor any country in Asia wants. In order to avoid such a trap, it is my view that increased two-way engagement between the US and China based on transparency and mutuality will be crucial.
Lastly, I would like to touch upon the need for a multilateral security regime for Northeast Asia. Unlike Europe where multilateralism has flourished, prospects for the creation of a pan-Asian multilateral security framework do not look bright.

Why is that so? Above all other factors, European countries share similar cultural and religious backgrounds and European countries are located on a single landmass. Such geographic proximity has meant that European countries generally share similar challenges, which has, more or less, led to the adoption of a pan-European approach to the security issues, for instance, in the form of CSCE and then OSCE. 
However, when we look at Asia, we can see greater cultural-social differences than we find in Europe. A staggering diversity of languages, religions and ethnicities and a great degree of physical separation between Asian countries by sea make it difficult to establish a common and transparent code of conduct involving sensitive security issues.

What we need in Asia, therefore, is a sub-regional approach as far as security multilateralism is concerned. In whatever form, a multilateral security mechanism can play a pivotal role in preventing regional disputes from escalating into conflicts. It can also promote dialogue and better cooperation within the region. It is exactly in this context that the Moon Jae-in Government of Korea is committed to the promotion and institutionalization of a multilateral security framework for Northeast Asia.

In sum, all these tasks and approaches are not easy ones. Many of you here have been given the responsibility of bringing peace in an uncertain and dangerous world and therefore, must know very well that my points were made with much ease.

All the problems we have discussed today, however, were not created by God but made by human beings. As such, I have always assured myself as well as my counterparts, in any negotiation, that we will find a solution when we bring our collective wisdom together.

It’s been an honor to share my thoughts with you in this prestigious forum and I would like to conclude my remarks by quoting Winston Churchill. “A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.”

Thank you for your attention.