1. The Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS) of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy (KNDA) published on December 27 “IFANS Forecast 2019,” which consists of five chapters -- an overview of a prospect regarding the international political and economic landscapes in 2019; the political landscape of the Korean Peninsula; the political landscape of Northeast Asia; situations in major regions of the world; and global issues and governance.

※ In this publication, put out on an annual basis since 1989, are presented views held by IFANS faculty members, but not the official position of IFANS, on the aforementioned matters.

a. International order: The world will likely see a growing tide of the “my country first” position and authoritarianism as well as a sharper geopolitical competition.

° In 2019, the international community will see, along with the rise of “identity politics,” national centralism strengthen; nationalism articulated; and authoritarianism spread, all of which could undermine the foundation of liberalism.

° Amid the ongoing erosion of liberal international order, the so-called “tribalism,” a type of collectivism based on the possession of ethnic, religious, sectarian, tribal and various other types of identities, could rise along with “exclusionary populism” as a way to counter it.

b. East Asia: The region would seek to implement diplomacy in a way that would help it spare itself from the competition between the United States and the People’s Republic of China.

° The “my country first” policy could be implemented more vigorously even in East Asia in 2019, with geopolitical conflicts and competitions among major countries, especially between the US and China, likely to continue and intensify. 

° In particular, the Trump administration of the US, as it seeks to scale back its engagement in the Middle East and Europe, will likely place its top priority on its strategy toward Asia, and China is expected to counter such US moves. As for now, despite their fierce conflict, the two countries are expected to maintain their relations without aiming to seek the other country’s collapse.

c. The Korean Peninsula: Negotiation efforts will continue at a time when the denuclearization and peace process has reached a critical juncture.

° The regime of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, which has achieved political stability among its power elites, faces in 2019 the challenges of fully winning over the people and of mustering resources necessary for continued development through its main, large-scale projects, including those for construction of cities and infrastructure.

- People of the DPRK want to reap fruit from development, but with the past modus operandi of the regime still in place, innovative changes are not expected to happen in the economic condition of the DPRK until remarkable denuclearization steps are taken and sanctions are lifted in exchange for those steps.

° Summit-level efforts are expected to continue in 2019 to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue, with the US and the DPRK going through temporary stages of a deadlock and a tug-of-war over denuclearization steps and corresponding measures. However, as the Republic of Korea, the US and the DPRK all have motivations for and willingness toward negotiations, negotiations on denuclearization are expected to move continuously forward.  

* unofficial translation