1. The Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS) of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy (KNDA) held its 2017 Conference on Global Affairs themed “Nuclear-Free Korean Peninsula: Strategies and Action Programs for the Moon Jae-in Administration” at the KNDA, Seoul, on December 11.

※ IFANS has held this international forum on an annual basis since 2010.

2. In her keynote speech, Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha pointed out that the pursuit of “peace instead of violence as well as communication and cooperation instead of self-righteousness” by the Moon Jae-in government, which had been born in the spirit of candlelight vigils, is reflected in its foreign policy; and that the denuclearization of North Korea should be achieved based on the ironclad Republic of Korea-United States alliance, mature ROK-China strategic partnership, close bilateral relations with Japan and Russia and diversified diplomacy.

3. In his opening remarks, KNDA Chancellor Cho Byung-jae stressed that the international community should muster creative ideas regarding the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and, instead of choosing the military option, should make diplomatic efforts to the extent possible toward it.

4. Former Secretary of State Colin Powell of the US delivered a special address, in which he mentioned that diplomatic and peaceful efforts should be made toward the denuclearization of not only North Korea but also the entire world; and that the North, on its part, must be aware of the fact that using a nuclear device in any way will constitute a suicidal act.

5. In his special speech, former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd of Australia said that North Korea has seen progress in nuclear and missile technology and is estimated to have 30-50 nuclear warheads, raising the possibility of conflict on the Korean Peninsula to 20-25%. He went on to sum up possible future scenarios -- the US and China unofficially recognizing North Korea as a nuclear state; the US launching a pre-emptive strike on nuclear facilities in the North; and resolving the North Korean nuclear issue through “a grand bargain.”

6. Moon Jung-in, special advisor to the President for unification, diplomacy and national security affairs, moderated a panel discussion on “Resolving North Korean Nuclear Problem through International Collaboration.” The gist of the discussion is as follows.

° [A 25% possibility of conflict on the Korean Peninsula] Former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd of Australia pointed out that North Korea is crossing the US-set nuclear red line; and that the 25% possibility reflects the Chinese government’s view that such indicators as nuclear technology and foreign policies point to high chances of conflict. He added that he brought up the possibility of conflict to highlight the importance of “diplomacy” in tackling the North Korean nuclear issue.

° [The possibility of the US taking a military action] The former Australian Prime Minister emphasized that the possibility of the US taking any form of unilateral military action is not totally ignorable. Former Under Secretary of State Thomas Pickering of the US, citing the risk of “miscalculation” caused by uncertainties, stressed that not only should expectations be placed on diplomatic approaches to produce optimistic results, but also efforts should be made to “build trust.”

° [The possibility of striking a “grand bargain”] On the topic of “negotiations on the North Korean nuclear issue,” the former US Under Secretary of State mentioned that as considerable trust is necessary for striking a grand bargain, it should be sought in a phasal and gradual manner. The former Australian Prime Minister noted that as, in their early stages, the negotiations for the freeze on the development of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) might not move forward in a way that serves security interests of the ROK and Japan, which have already been exposed to risks, cautions should be exercised not to place any burden on the alliance. The former US Secretary of State, calling North Korea totally unreliable, emphasized that in the early stages of the negotiations, ample attention should be paid to ways to verify the freeze on nuclear and missile programs.

° [Ways to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue] With regard to ways to move forward with negotiations on the North Korean nuclear issue, the former Australian Prime Minister, acknowledging the need for inter-Korean and US-North Korea bilateral talks, said that these bilateral talks should thereafter be held within the framework of the Six-Party Talks. He added that in order to effectively pressure North Korea to implement the measures agreed upon, there needs to be the Six-Party Talks platform for all of the related countries to take part in. The former US Secretary of State highlighted the importance of bearing in mind that nuclear weapons are not merely “another form of weapon.”

7. In Session II on “Untangling North Korean Nuclear and Missile Quagmire: Kim Jong-un’s Intention, Capability and Strategy,” moderated by IFANS President Paik Ji-ah, lawmaker Hong Ik-pyo of the Democratic Party said, “What North Korea probably and ultimately wants is political negotiations, including to normalize its bilateral relations with the US and Japan.” In that light, he added, “Only when sanctions are enforced with clear goals in mind, will the goals be achieved.”


* unofficial translation